Queensland: robust growth over the long-term, now and in the future
12 April
Gene Tunny Director Adept Economics
Since 2000, the Queensland economy has grown at an average annual rate of 3.4 per cent compared with 2.7 per cent nationally. Among the states, only Western Australia, with its resources boom, has outpaced it but the Sunshine State stands on the brink of even greater opportunity â with the 2032 Olympics an exclamation point.
Queenslandâs consistently higher growth has meant that, compared with 1990, the economy is now more than three times larger while the Australian economy is around 2½ times larger.
|”Southerners are being attracted by warmer weather, a better lifestyle, natural assets and relatively lower house prices.”
Yet that greater opportunity can take this outperformance up another level by diversifying traditional strengths through emerging sectors.
Under a business as usual scenario, Queenslandâs economy will grow 31 per cent over the 10 years to 2032â33. But if new opportunities â for example critical minerals, hydrogen and agtech â are fully developed, a more optimistic scenario emerges, with the state economy expanding 46 per cent by 2032â33.
For that optimistic âSeizing the Opportunityâ scenario to happen, the state will require around $230 billion in additional private sector investment, above the business-as-usual baseline, over the decade to hosting the Olympics.
Adept Economics believes the more aggressive growth outlook is very credible if Queensland builds on its existing strengths while maximising the opportunity. Critically, there is also an opportunity cost in not seizing the opportunity as it will in all likelihood be taken up by other states or nations.
Queensland is well placed already but with extra private sector investment and appropriate policy measures to encourage that investment, the future state could be even brighter. The opportunity in sustainability solutions, the critical minerals required for a low emissions economy, the Olympics, the greater attraction for technology workers to work remotely in Queensland and connectivity to Asia are all other critical advantages Queensland has and can take advantage of.
Faster growing economy than national average
Gene Tunny is director Adept Economics, and Pete Faulkner is a partner at Conus Business Consultancy Services
The views and opinions expressed in this communication are those of the author and may not necessarily state or reflect those of ANZ.